Midwest Earthquake Threat Looms: Experts Warn of Catastrophic Damage

According to a report published in 2025, the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) in the central United States is overdue for a catastrophic earthquake that could devastate the Midwest and beyond. The NMSZ, a 150-mile-long area along the Mississippi River Valley, experiences hundreds of minor quakes each year but has not seen a major event since a swarm of powerful quakes over 7.0 in magnitude struck the region in 1811-1812.

Experts warn that the NMSZ has a 25-40% chance of experiencing a magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake in the next five decades. Such an event could cause over $43 billion in damage and more than 80,000 casualties, as the region's infrastructure and buildings are not designed to withstand major seismic activity. Unlike earthquake-prone California, states like Missouri, Arkansas, and Tennessee focus more on preparing for natural disasters like tornadoes, leaving them vulnerable to a large NMSZ quake.

With the last major NMSZ earthquake occurring over 200 years ago, officials in the Midwest are bracing for the inevitable "Big One" that could cripple infrastructure from roads and bridges to power lines and hospitals across eight states. Seismologists caution that the unique geology of the central US means a magnitude 6.0 quake could shake an area 20 times larger than a similar event in California, compounding the potential for catastrophic damage.