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Sugar Stocks Dip Ahead of Festivals, Raising Supply Concerns
30 Aug
Summary
- Government estimates sugar stock at 69 lakh tonnes by end of August
- Domestic sales quota for September may be exhausted, leaving 46 lakh tonnes
- Previous low closing stock was 39.41 lakh tonnes in 2017-18 season
As of August 30, 2025, the Indian government has estimated the country's sugar stock at around 69 lakh tonnes (lt). However, the government has allocated 23.5 lt for domestic sales during September, which is likely to be exhausted completely due to the earlier-than-normal celebration of the Dussehra and Diwali festivals this year.
This means that the closing stock of the current season is expected to be around 46 lt, which is lower than the industry's estimate of 52 lt. The Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) had previously projected the closing stock to be about 52 lt.
The government had allocated 47.5 lt of sugar for domestic sales during October-November of 2024, and experts suggest that if the allocation is maintained at the same level, the closing stock will be even lower, forcing the government to rely on fresh sugar produced in the next season, starting from October 1, 2025.
The previous low of closing stock was 39.41 lt in the 2017-18 season (October-September), and after that, it never dipped below 50 lt in any season. The closing stock of sugar on September 30, 2024, was 79 lt, which helped India manage the supply situation as the net production was estimated to drop to 261 lt in the 2024-25 season against domestic consumption of 275.5 lt.
ISMA has projected the country's gross sugar output to be 349.01 lt in the 2025-26 season, up by 18% from 295.07 lt in the 2024-25 season, which should help alleviate the supply concerns once the fresh production starts arriving from November 2025.
