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Nvidia's Earnings Report to Sway Semiconductor ETF's Trajectory
27 Aug
Summary
- Nvidia's earnings report on August 27, 2025 is a critical event for the semiconductor industry
- The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has been trading in a six-week range, awaiting Nvidia's impact
- SMH's performance relative to the broader technology sector could signal the market's direction
As August 2025 winds down, the focus is squarely on Nvidia's earnings report, which is set to be a pivotal event for the semiconductor industry. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is poised to be significantly affected by Nvidia's performance, as the company is a major component of the fund.
For the past six weeks, SMH has been trading within a tight range, with various breakout and breakdown attempts failing to gain traction. This period of consolidation is reminiscent of two prior "trading boxes" that the ETF has experienced, both of which ultimately led to continuation patterns within the larger uptrend.
Notably, SMH's uptrend began with the ETF breaking out of a cup-and-handle pattern in early May 2025, a pattern that was also seen in the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and hundreds of other stocks and ETFs. If SMH is to continue its upward trajectory, it will need to break out of its current trading range, and Nvidia's earnings report could be the catalyst for that move.
Historically, SMH has shown a tendency to log significant pivots after periods of volatility, as seen in 2020 when the ETF gained around 75% before a market correction. A similar pattern could play out this time, with SMH potentially spiking higher after Nvidia's report, provided the results are favorable.
