What does Moody's economist Mark Zandi predict about the US economy?

Moody's economist Mark Zandi predicts that the US economy is on the brink of recession, though he doesn't believe the country is in a recession yet.

What factors does Zandi cite as contributing to the economic slowdown?

Zandi cites tariffs, restrictive immigration policies, and government policy cuts as the primary factors driving economic uncertainty and causing businesses to delay investment and hiring.

How does Zandi define a recession, and does he believe the US is currently in one?

Zandi defines a recession as a period of consistent declines in job growth lasting for at least a few months. He says the US economy is not in a recession yet by this definition, but he warns that tougher times are likely ahead.

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Moody's Economist Warns of Impending US Recession

17 Aug

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Summary

Moody's economist predicts US economy on brink of recession
Cites tariffs, restrictive immigration, and government policy as factors
Believes recession is inevitable, though timing and severity uncertain

Moody's Economist Warns of Impending US Recession

According to a recent analysis by Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi, the US economy is on the verge of a recession. In an interview with Business Insider on August 17, 2025, Zandi explained that the slowdown in economic growth and acceleration of inflation are primarily due to the current administration's economic policies.

Zandi pointed to the impact of tariffs, restrictive immigration policies, and cuts to government efficiency as key contributors to the economic uncertainty that has caused businesses to delay investment and new hiring. While he doesn't believe the US is in a recession yet, Zandi warned that tougher days are likely ahead.

The economist noted that the effects of the tariffs are slowly but steadily being passed on to consumers, and the impact will become even more apparent in the coming months. Zandi also expressed concern about the highly unpredictable nature of the current administration's economic policies, making it difficult to forecast the exact timing and severity of the impending recession.

Despite the gloomy outlook, Zandi reiterated that the US economy is not officially in a recession as of August 17, 2025, based on his definition of a recession as a period of consistent declines in job growth lasting for at least a few months. However, he warned that the situation is likely to deteriorate in the near future.

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