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Inflation Fears Threaten to Derail US Stock Market's Record Run
8 Aug
Summary
- S&P 500 up over 7% this year, nearing all-time high
- Strategists warn of potential market pullback due to high valuations
- Upcoming CPI report could cause volatility if inflation is higher than expected

As of August 8th, 2025, the US stock market's rally is facing a fresh test, with investors closely watching the upcoming inflation data for any signs of trouble. The benchmark S&P 500 index has surged over 7% so far this year and is within 1% of its all-time closing high set in late July.
However, some strategists have cautioned that the market may be primed for a potential pullback after its largely unabated climb over the past four months. This rally has pushed valuations to historically expensive levels, with the S&P 500 trading at 22.4 times its earnings estimates for the next year, well above its long-term average.
Adding to the concerns is the seasonally treacherous period for stocks, as August and September have historically been the worst-performing months for the S&P 500 over the past 35 years. The index has declined an average of 0.6% in August and 0.8% in September during this time.
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The upcoming release of the July consumer price index report on Tuesday could be a key catalyst for market volatility. Data showing higher-than-expected inflation could undermine the growing expectation for impending interest rate cuts, potentially triggering a correction in the market.