China's Thermal Coal Imports Soar as India's Plummet

As of August 25, 2025, China's seaborne thermal coal imports are poised to climb to 25.63 million metric tons in August, up from 22.77 million in July and the highest since December 2024. This increase comes as India's thermal coal imports are forecast to drop to 9.74 million tons, down from 11.99 million in July and the lowest since February 2023.

The contrasting fortunes of the world's two biggest thermal coal importers largely reflect the dynamics in their domestic markets. In China, thermal power generation rose 4.3% in July, even as domestic coal production slipped 3.8%. This has sparked buying interest for seaborne coal, with low prices also boosting import demand.

Meanwhile, India's coal-fired power generation has seen its share drop to a five-year low, as hydropower and renewables have surged. India is also increasing its own coal output, with production expected to reach around 1.15 billion tons in the current fiscal year, exceeding the previous record.

The short-term takeaway is that domestic coal production remains a key driver of demand and prices in the seaborne market, with China continuing to be the dominant force. Longer-term, both China and India are rapidly installing renewable energy capacity, which could lead to a declining trend in their need for imported thermal coal.