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Brazil's Sugar Output Drops 3.1%, Prices Rise Amid Drought
28 Aug
Summary
- Brazil cuts 2025/26 sugar production estimate by 3.1%
- China's July sugar imports surge 76% to 740,000 MT
- India may permit sugar exports in 2025/26 season
As of August 28, 2025, the global sugar market is in flux, with significant developments impacting prices and trade.
Brazil, a major sugar producer, has cut its 2025/26 sugar production estimate by 3.1% to 44.5 million metric tons (MMT), down from a previous estimate of 45.9 MMT. This reduction is due to drier cane crops, which have prompted Brazil's sugar mills to prioritize sugar production over ethanol. This trend is expected to continue as the harvest peaks.
The drop in Brazil's sugar output has contributed to a rise in sugar prices. On August 12, 2025, New York sugar futures rallied to a 2.5-month high on concerns over weaker cane yields in Brazil. Additionally, China's July 2025 sugar imports surged 76% to 740,000 MT, and Pakistan recently tendered for 200,000 MT of refined sugar, indicating stronger global demand.
However, the outlook for higher sugar exports from India is expected to put downward pressure on prices. Bloomberg reported that India may permit local sugar mills to export sugar in the next season, which starts in October 2025, as abundant monsoon rains are predicted to produce a bumper sugar crop.
