Allison Transmission Earnings Surprise: Analysts Rethink Forecasts

On August 3rd, 2025, Allison Transmission (NYSE:ALSN), a prominent transmission provider, will be announcing its latest earnings results after the market closes. The company had a mixed performance in the previous quarter, missing analysts' revenue expectations by 3.2% and reporting revenues of $766 million, a 2.9% decline year-over-year.

Despite the revenue miss, Allison Transmission had a strong quarter, with its full-year EBITDA guidance exceeding analysts' expectations and its full-year revenue guidance beating analysts' expectations. This has led analysts to generally reconfirm their estimates for the current quarter, suggesting they anticipate the business to maintain its course.

However, the analysts are expecting Allison Transmission's revenue to decline 2% year-over-year to $800 million in the current quarter, a reversal from the 4.2% increase it recorded in the same quarter last year. Adjusted earnings are expected to come in at $2.22 per share.

Looking at Allison Transmission's peers in the heavy transportation equipment segment, some have already reported their Q2 results, providing a glimpse into the industry's performance. Greenbrier, for instance, delivered year-over-year revenue growth of 2.7%, beating analysts' expectations by 7.3%, while PACCAR reported a revenue decline of 15.7%, topping estimates by 2.6%. The market has reacted positively to these results, with Greenbrier's share price rising 21.1% and PACCAR's increasing by 8.9%.

As investors in the heavy transportation equipment segment await Allison Transmission's earnings report, the company's share price has declined by 7.2% over the last month, trading at an average analyst price target of $103.56 (compared to the current share price of $88.24).