AI Hype Outpaces Reality as S&P 500 Firms Struggle to Quantify Profits

As of September 2025, the hype around artificial intelligence (AI) has reached new heights, with a record 58% of S&P 500 companies mentioning the technology on their second-quarter earnings calls. However, the promised payoff has not yet materialized, according to a recent analysis by Goldman Sachs.

While companies are quick to tout their new AI tools for customer support, software coding, and marketing, the share of firms quantifying the actual impact of AI on their earnings remains limited. In fact, a recent McKinsey survey showed that more than 80% of companies said generative AI has not meaningfully affected their bottom line.

Despite the lack of tangible financial benefits, the stock market's love affair with AI shows no signs of slowing down. Shares of AI-exposed companies have surged 17% so far in 2025, following a 32% jump the previous year. This has pushed the S&P 500 to one of its most expensive levels ever, though still below the peaks of the dot-com bubble and the 2021 tech boom.

The Goldman Sachs analysts caution that the risk is that the hype around AI gets too far ahead of the reality. If AI spending were to revert back to 2022 levels, it could shave $1 trillion off 2026 sales forecasts and wipe 15% to 20% off the S&P 500's value. As the market navigates the various stages of the AI trade, investors will likely wait for clear evidence of earnings gains before fully embracing the potential of this transformative technology.