Will the AI boom save the US economy from recession?

No, according to strategist Peter Berezin, the AI boom is more of a "stock market story" than an economic one, and is unlikely to prevent a potential recession in the US.

How likely is a US recession in the next 12 months?

Berezin estimates a 60% chance of the US entering a recession within the next 12 months.

What are the signs that the US economy may be past its peak?

Indicators like declines in consumer spending power, employment, and productivity growth suggest the economy may already be past its business cycle peak.

Home / Business and Economy / AI Boom Fails to Offset Looming US Recession, Strategist Warns

AI Boom Fails to Offset Looming US Recession, Strategist Warns

5 Aug

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Summary

60% chance of US recession in next 12 months
Tech job growth showing signs of slowing
Productivity gains from AI not yet materializing

AI Boom Fails to Offset Looming US Recession, Strategist Warns

As of August 5th, 2025, a leading global strategist is warning that the AI boom may not be enough to stave off an economic downturn in the United States. Peter Berezin, the chief global strategist at BCA Research, believes the US has a 60% chance of entering a recession within the next 12 months.

Berezin argues that a potential contraction is unlikely to be prevented by the current enthusiasm for artificial intelligence. While big tech firms have been investing heavily in AI, much of this spending has been concentrated on Nvidia's AI chips and other tech equipment that are not manufactured domestically. Additionally, the strategist notes that employment growth in the IT services sector has been slowing, indicating the tech boom may be past its peak.

Furthermore, the data does not yet show a significant acceleration in productivity growth in the "Post-ChatGPT" era, which has averaged around 2.1% - below the levels seen during the dot-com bubble. Berezin suggests it could take years for the productivity gains from AI to materialize, just as it took around 15 years for the personal computer to drive a meaningful increase in productivity.

Other economic indicators, such as declines in consumer spending power and employment, also point to the possibility that the US economy may already be past its business cycle peak, further heightening recession risks.

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