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Shale Wells Hit Record Low, Capping U.S. Oil Output
30 May
Summary
- Drilled-but-uncompleted wells are at a record low.
- Exports and refinery processing have surged recently.
- Oil inventories have rapidly fallen due to supply shortfalls.
U.S. shale producers are currently operating with the lowest-ever stock of drilled-but-uncompleted wells, significantly restricting their capacity to rapidly boost crude oil output. This situation arises as exports and refinery intake have surged to compensate for supply shortfalls, leading to a dramatic decrease in U.S. oil inventories. As of the week ending May 22, 2026, U.S. crude stockpiles fell by 12.4 million barrels, reaching their lowest point since January 2025.
The limited number of drilled-but-uncompleted (DUC) wells, estimated at 4,972 in April 2026, represents a critical bottleneck. These wells typically offer a faster route to production, with output available in six to nine weeks, compared to several months for new wells. In recent months, operators had prioritized completing existing wells due to weaker oil prices, reducing the DUC inventory. However, with current market conditions, this shock absorber for production fluctuations is nearly depleted.
Despite the low DUC count, the U.S. rig count has been increasing, with 425 onshore oil rigs operational in the week to May 22, 2026, the highest since July 2025. This indicates a future trend towards replenishing DUC inventories as oil futures for November delivery traded around $78 a barrel, signaling operator commitment to new drilling. Consultancies anticipate the DUC count will begin to grow again, with some already observing a slight uptick by May 20, 2026.
