Iran War Halts US Oil Deals Amid Price Volatility

US oil and gas dealmaking has stalled despite a strong start to the year, with transactions reaching $45 billion, the highest in two years. This slowdown is attributed to volatile crude prices, which have made it challenging to accurately price deals. Following Iran's attack on a natural gas facility, Brent crude prices fluctuated significantly, leading to a 'paralysis' in ongoing negotiations.

Industry professionals report that numerous merger and acquisition talks have been put on hold. Companies are waiting for market stabilization before proceeding, with bankers noting that it is pointless to accept bids when prices are unpredictable. This situation impacts traditional dealmaking events and processes.

Previously, companies had focused on efficiency and shareholder returns, leading to a wave of activity. Predictions for continued consolidation and increased demand for US gas, especially from Asia, were anticipated for 2026. However, the current geopolitical climate has created uncertainty, affecting buyer and seller price expectations.

Factors like asset-backed securities and a scarcity of high-quality assets have driven competition. Potential targets included TRP Energy, Stabilis Energy, and Firebird Energy, with Exxon and Chevron expected to make large acquisitions. Yet, the broader market remains in a holding pattern until the geopolitical outlook clarifies and price spreads narrow.