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US Economy: Growth to Beat Forecasts in 2026?
20 Nov
Summary
- Economic growth in 2026 is projected to exceed consensus expectations.
- Anticipated Fed easing and AI's evolving impact to drive future growth.
- Near-term data may appear weak, but a stronger second half of 2026 is expected.
Projections indicate that US economic growth in 2026 is poised to surpass current consensus estimates, defying expectations of a slowdown. This optimistic outlook stems from a combination of factors, including anticipated easing from the Federal Reserve and the ongoing, yet partial, adaptation to significant trade and AI-driven changes. While the immediate future might present some weaker economic data, a more substantial recovery is expected as 2026 progresses.
The immediate period may see volatility, with some anticipating subpar payroll numbers. However, the underlying trend points towards a more resilient economy. Inflation, though above target, is expected to moderate with further monetary easing. This suggests that the economy is navigating a higher cost environment and a lower neutral growth rate, yet holds potential for outperformance, particularly when considering global economic partners.
