What is JPMorgan's outlook on the U.S. debt crisis?

JPMorgan's 2026 outlook warns that the U.S. may address its $38.15 trillion national debt and 120% debt-to-GDP ratio through higher inflation, weaker Federal Reserve independence, and significant pain for risk assets like cryptocurrency.

How does JPMorgan suggest the U.S. could reduce its debt burden?

JPMorgan sees "financial repression" as the solution, where policymakers tolerate higher nominal growth and inflation while keeping real interest rates low, allowing the real value of outstanding debt to shrink over time.

What is the current state of the crypto market according to the article?

The article states that global crypto markets sit around the $3 trillion mark, but markets are down, with broad risk-off moves hitting everything from equities to altcoins. In the past 24 hours, around 159,562 traders have been liquidated, with total liquidations near $842.60 million.

Home / Business and Economy / JPMorgan Warns of Inflation, Fed Erosion, and Market Turmoil in U.S. Debt Crisis

JPMorgan Warns of Inflation, Fed Erosion, and Market Turmoil in U.S. Debt Crisis

18 Nov

•

Summary

U.S. national debt reaches $38.15 trillion, debt-to-GDP ratio around 120%
JPMorgan sees "financial repression" as solution, tolerating higher inflation and eroding Fed independence
Crypto markets down $842.60 million in past 24 hours amid broader risk-off moves

JPMorgan Warns of Inflation, Fed Erosion, and Market Turmoil in U.S. Debt Crisis

As of November 18th, 2025, JPMorgan Private Bank's outlook paints a concerning picture for the United States' economic future. The country's national debt has swelled to a staggering $38.15 trillion, with the debt-to-GDP ratio hovering around 120%. This means the U.S. owes significantly more than it produces annually, raising questions about the government's ability to service and roll over that debt without alarming investors.

According to JPMorgan, the politically clean options to address this debt crisis are limited. Cutting spending on Social Security and Medicare is "politically unpalatable," while raising taxes further is constrained by the U.S. already having relatively low tax revenue as a share of GDP.