When will truckload volumes improve according to RXO?

RXO's report suggests truckload volumes may remain muted in Q4 2025, with a meaningful shift potentially occurring in 2026.

What is impacting the trucking market?

Shifting trade policies, CDL enforcement, English proficiency rules, and weak manufacturing demand are pressuring the trucking market.

Is manufacturing demand improving for trucking?

Manufacturing output remains significantly weak compared to 2007, and new orders for manufactured goods have recently contracted.

Home / Business and Economy / Trucking Rates Stuck: Recovery Pushed to 2026

Trucking Rates Stuck: Recovery Pushed to 2026

13 Dec, 2025

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Summary

Truckload volumes expected to remain muted through Q4 2025.
Spot rates likely to stay stagnant without significant shifts.
Manufacturing output decline impacts freight demand for trucking.

Trucking Rates Stuck: Recovery Pushed to 2026

Trucking volumes are anticipated to remain subdued through the fourth quarter of 2025. However, freight broker RXO's analysis suggests a significant market shift may not occur until 2026. While recent months have shown year-over-year improvement, spot rates are expected to stay largely unchanged in the immediate future.

The trucking industry is currently navigating several pressures, including evolving U.S. trade policies and stricter enforcement of CDL and English language proficiency requirements. Economists debate whether supply-side disruptions or declining demand will be the primary market driver.

Weak manufacturing output, a crucial sector for trucking freight, continues to be a concern. Industrial production in manufacturing has seen a substantial decrease compared to 2007 levels, impacting overall demand. Despite some positive signs, new orders for manufactured goods have contracted recently.