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Thai Economy to Rebound in Late 2025, Rate Cuts Loom
6 Jan
Summary
- Thai economy projected to grow positively in Q4 2025.
- Central bank governor urges caution on further interest rate cuts.
- Gold trading volatility prompts potential Thai government intervention.
Thailand's economic growth is projected to turn positive in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to Deputy Governor Piti Disyatat of the Bank of Thailand (BOT). This outlook suggests the economy may avoid a technical recession, having previously contracted in the third quarter.
Despite anticipated growth, Disyatat stressed that policymakers must be cautious about further interest rate cuts due to limited policy space. The central bank has already reduced rates significantly since late 2024. Inflation is expected to return to positive territory by March or April of this year.
The nation is also addressing volatility in its currency, the Thai baht, which has seen significant surges. Measures, including potential taxes on online gold transactions, are being considered to curb excessive trading that impacts the local currency, while encouraging dollar-denominated gold trading.
