Tesla Roadster: A Futuristic Dream Delayed?

Morningstar projects a niche role for Tesla's "halo car," the Roadster, anticipating only about 2,000 annual sales. This stands in stark contrast to Tesla's broader delivery goals, which are expected to reach nearly 1.8 million vehicles in 2026. The firm's fair-value estimate for Tesla stock, suggesting a 24% upside, relies heavily on the company's advancements in artificial intelligence and autonomous driving technology.

The second-generation Roadster, first revealed in November 2017 with an initial production target of 2020, has been subjected to at least eight significant delays. Current estimates suggest production might not commence until 2027 or 2028, leaving deposit holders waiting for nearly a decade. A recent teaser hinted at a potential October 1st reveal, showcasing possible Cybertruck-inspired design elements and a SpaceX thruster package.

Morningstar's valuation strategy is anchored in Tesla's pivot towards AI-driven products, including autonomous vehicles and humanoid robots. The firm believes these investments are crucial for Tesla's long-term transformation, despite potential near-term negative free cash flow. Projections indicate that by 2030, autonomous vehicles could dominate ride-hailing services in the U.S. and Canada, with Tesla positioned as a major provider.

Retail trader sentiment for TSLA has shifted to 'extremely bearish,' despite some users expressing optimism about the Roadster launch and future ventures like the Cybercab and humanoid robots. This sentiment contrasts with the stock's performance, which has lagged behind its "Magnificent Seven" peers year-to-date.