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Stocks Poised for Robust November After Strong October
3 Nov
Summary
- S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite gained 2.3% and 4.7% in October
- November historically sees average 1.9% gain for S&P 500
- Caution lingers despite indices trading near record highs
As the market enters November, it is poised for a seasonally robust performance following an unseasonably strong October. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices have climbed 2.3% and 4.7%, respectively, in the previous month.
According to LPL's Adam Turnquist, over the last 75 years, the S&P 500 Index has posted an average return of 1.9% in November, with a 69% win rate. "And when November is positive, the average gain climbs to 4.0%," he noted.
However, the market is entering the penultimate month of the year with a cautious mood, as U.S. stock futures traded mixed early Monday. Factors such as the government shutdown, Trump tariff headlines, and the Federal Reserve's rate outlook are keeping the sentiment cautious, even as the indices trade near record highs.
While Turnquist cautioned that economic conditions, earnings, geopolitics, and policies are the primary drivers of price action, he noted that seasonal support could provide another tailwind for stocks over the coming months, limiting the depth and duration of drawdowns.
