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SpaceX Stock: Year One Performance Analysis
24 Oct
Summary
- SpaceX's IPO was the largest in stock market history.
- Lockup expirations in December 2026 may affect the stock price.
- Analysts have a bullish consensus price target of $240.
Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) made history with its June 12, 2026, IPO, the largest ever. As of October 24, 2026, the stock is trading near its initial price, with its trajectory over the next year hinging on several developments.
Quarterly earnings reports are significant; SpaceX recently exceeded third-quarter 2026 expectations. The full 180-day lockup expires on December 8, 2026, potentially impacting share prices as insiders gain selling rights. Founder Elon Musk can sell his shares on June 12, 2027. Musk has also mentioned exploring a merger between SpaceX and Tesla, though he stresses it's not a certainty.
SpaceX may become eligible for the S&P 500 in mid-2027, contingent on demonstrating profitability. Analysts hold a bullish outlook, with a consensus 12-month price target of $240. However, potential scenarios range from a bull case ($220-$240) to a bear case ($90-$110), with a base case prediction of $165-$185.
The author predicts SpaceX stock could trade around $200 on June 12, 2027, acknowledging significant uncertainties. Despite potential volatility, SpaceX's long-term prospects are viewed as exciting, potentially becoming a major 21st-century company.
