SpaceX Lockup Expiration: $104B Shares Unleashed?

Mizuho reiterated an Outperform rating on SpaceX, setting a $200.00 price target in anticipation of a major post-IPO lockup expiration. This significant release is scheduled for August 6, two trading days after the company's second-quarter earnings report. Approximately 911.5 million shares will become available for sale.

The impending lockup expiration is poised to substantially increase the potentially tradable share count, expanding it from 638.9 million IPO shares to around 1.55 billion. This represents an increase from 4.9% to 11.8% of pro-forma shares outstanding. At SpaceX's August 3 closing price of $114.53, the value of the eligible tranche is estimated at $104 billion.

Despite these figures, Mizuho acknowledged that not all eligible shares are guaranteed to be offered. The firm views the recent pullback in SpaceX's stock, which is down 49% from its June 16 high, as an attractive entry point. Current analysis suggests the stock may be overvalued at recent levels, though it has seen an 11% gain over the past week.

In parallel, SpaceX announced robust second-quarter financial results. Revenue reached $7.8 billion, marking a 92% surge year-over-year and surpassing expectations by roughly $1 billion. Adjusted EBITDA was reported at $3.5 billion, with a 44.9% margin, significantly exceeding analyst estimates. This strong performance has led to reiterated bullish ratings from various firms, including Raymond James (Strong Buy, $800 target), Stifel (Buy), BofA Securities (Buy, $235 target), Wolfe Research (Outperform), and Mizuho (Outperform, $200 target).