SpaceX's AI Compute Boom: Billion-Dollar Bet

Sequoia partner Shaun Maguire has presented a bold financial model predicting SpaceX's revenue could surge to $731 billion by 2028. The model's core assumption is that SpaceX can construct AI data centers far faster than established tech giants such as Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. Maguire suggests these rivals are inefficient builders in the physical world, a point seemingly supported by Microsoft's recent announcement of delayed third-party capacity deliveries.

Maguire's projection indicates that approximately four-fifths of SpaceX's projected revenue growth will stem from renting out AI compute power. Capacity is expected to scale dramatically from about 1 gigawatt in early 2026 to 21 gigawatts by the end of 2028. This ambitious forecast significantly exceeds Wall Street's consensus estimates, which place SpaceX's 2028 revenue at $336 billion, less than half of Maguire's figure.

While SpaceX has demonstrated rapid construction times for its own data centers, the viability of Maguire's model depends on sustained high rental prices for compute. SpaceX currently prices its compute at spot market rates, which could decrease as competitors ramp up their own capacity. Furthermore, a significant portion of SpaceX's revenue comes from a few large buyers, with contracts that may be subject to cancellation notices starting in early 2027, posing a risk to the long-term revenue projections.