What is Morgan Stanley's outlook on Reliance Industries' fourth monetization cycle?

Morgan Stanley is bullish on RIL's fourth monetization cycle, predicting significant cash flow generation and a valuation re-rating by 2026.

How will Reliance Industries' refining business perform?

RIL's refining business is in a 'golden age' with strong margins, expected to create US$7-10 billion in net asset value.

What are the growth prospects for Reliance Jio?

Jio is expected to become a strong cash generator, with ARPU rising at a 9% CAGR and benefiting from 5G and AI.

Home / Business and Economy / RIL Enters Fourth Monetization Cycle: Morgan Stanley Bullish

RIL Enters Fourth Monetization Cycle: Morgan Stanley Bullish

17 Dec, 2025

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Summary

Reliance Industries poised for re-rating as all major businesses become cash-flow positive.
Refining business expected to generate US$7-10 billion in net asset value.
Telecom ARPU projected to rise at 9% CAGR through 2028 with 5G adoption.

RIL Enters Fourth Monetization Cycle: Morgan Stanley Bullish

Reliance Industries is entering its fourth major monetization cycle, marked by a significant inflection in cash flows across all key business verticals. Morgan Stanley predicts that by 2026, all of RIL's energy, consumer, and telecom businesses will achieve free cash flow positivity simultaneously, a first for the company. This convergence is expected to trigger a substantial valuation re-rating, mirroring historical performance during similar phases.

The refining sector is identified as a particularly strong, yet underappreciated, segment. With refining margins near US$14/bbl, this 'golden age' for refining is estimated to contribute US$7-10 billion in net asset value. Concurrently, Jio's telecom operations are evolving into robust cash generators, with ARPU forecasted to grow at a 9% CAGR through 2028, supported by 5G upgrades and new AI-driven offerings.