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Rigetti's Bet on Quantum: Investors Demand Proof, Not Promises
17 Sep
Summary
- Rigetti stock fell 73% from its yearly high, despite market gains.
- Second-quarter 2026 revenue reached $5.1 million, up significantly from last year.
- The company is betting on reaching quantum advantage within three years.
Rigetti Computing (RGTI) has experienced a substantial 73% decline from its peak stock price over the past year, a stark contrast to the S&P 500's 17% gain. This market performance suggests investor focus has shifted from the company's ambitious roadmap to tangible proof of its value.
Despite the stock's fall, Rigetti achieved operational milestones, reporting $5.1 million in second-quarter 2026 revenue, a significant increase from $1.8 million in the prior year. The company also finalized terms for a $100 million CHIPS Act award in early September 2026.
The market's reevaluation is evident in Rigetti's valuation, where approximately nine-tenths of its current market value is tied to its three-year plan for achieving quantum advantage. Revenue from system access, distinct from hardware sales, was only $143,000 in the first half of 2026.
Rigetti, which sells superconducting quantum computers like the Cepheus-1-108Q, acknowledges its systems are not yet close to quantum advantage. Customers are currently purchasing them for research purposes. Operating expenses in the second quarter of 2026 were $30.3 million, about six times the revenue, leading to a cash decrease of $28 million for the quarter.
Historically, Rigetti's stock has been more volatile during market shocks, experiencing an average peak-to-trough decline of 52% compared to the S&P 500's 13% since 2022. The deepest fall was 83% during the 2022 inflation shock, and a 64% drop occurred during the 2023 SVB regional banking crisis.
