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Retailers Gear Up for Blockbuster Holiday Season as Spending Heats Up
18 Nov
Summary
- Retail sales in Nov-Dec 2025 projected to rise 3.7%-4.2% vs 2024
- Consumers plan to spend avg $890 on gifts and seasonal items
- Deckers Outdoor faces $150M tariff headwinds in 2026, but analysts see 40% upside
As the cold weather approaches in 2025, retailers are gearing up for a blockbuster holiday season. According to data from the National Retail Federation (NRF), retail sales in November and December 2025 are projected to be 3.7% to 4.2% higher than in 2024, and are expected to surpass $1 trillion.
Respondents to the NRF survey plan to spend an average of $890 on gifts and other seasonal items, indicating that consumer spending is set to heat up despite concerns about higher-income consumers looking to stretch their dollars further. This spending, however, is not expected to show up in the current earnings season.
One company that is facing challenges is Deckers Outdoor Corp. (NYSE: DECK), the parent company of iconic footwear brands UGG and HOKA. DECK stock is down 58.5% so far in 2025 and has failed to gain momentum, despite posting a solid earnings report in late October. The primary issue is tariffs, with the company expecting "significant tariff headwinds" of around $150 million in its 2026 fiscal year.
Despite these headwinds, analysts remain bullish on DECK stock, with a consensus price target of $118.11, representing a 40% gain from its price as of November 13. At 14x forward earnings and with earnings growth of over 12% expected in the next 12 months, the stock appears undervalued compared to itself and the sector.
In contrast, Canada Goose Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOS) is thriving, with its stock up over 32% in 2025 and having recovered from a brief post-earnings sell-off. The company is benefiting from the high-end consumer's continued demand for luxury winter apparel.
