What is Paychex CEO John Gibson's outlook on the small business labor market?

John Gibson sees solid but moderating labor growth for small businesses and does not anticipate a recession.

How does Paychex view the impact of AI on jobs?

Paychex believes AI will evolve jobs rather than destroy them, with less risk for their client base.

Are small businesses struggling to find workers according to Paychex?

Yes, the smallest businesses, in particular, continue to face challenges in finding qualified employees.

Home / Business and Economy / Paychex CEO: No Recession Looms for Small Biz

Paychex CEO: No Recession Looms for Small Biz

20 Dec

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Summary

Labor growth for small businesses is solid but moderating.
Small businesses are focused on managing costs currently.
AI is seen as evolving, not destroying, jobs.

Paychex CEO: No Recession Looms for Small Biz

Paychex CEO John Gibson shared a positive outlook on the small business labor market in a recent interview. He indicated that while labor growth is solid, it has moderated from the previous year, with businesses prioritizing cost management. Gibson also addressed concerns about artificial intelligence, suggesting that technology evolves jobs rather than destroying them, and noted Paychex's clients, largely blue- and gray-collar workers, have less exposure to AI risks.

Despite a slight stock dip following earnings, Paychex's financial results met expectations, with management raising its full-year earnings forecast. The company's small business job index has remained stable throughout 2025, with wage inflation moderating. However, finding qualified employees continues to be a challenge, particularly for the smallest businesses.