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OPEC+ Pauses Output Hikes Amid Market Glut Fears
1 Dec, 2025
Summary
- OPEC+ confirmed a three-month pause on oil production increases.
- Global oil markets are heading for a significant surplus by early 2026.
- A new mechanism was approved for reviewing members' individual production capacities.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) have decided to maintain their current strategy by pausing production increases for the first quarter. This move reflects expectations of weaker seasonal demand and a growing surplus in global oil markets. Despite rapid output revival earlier this year, the alliance now forecasts a significant excess by early 2026, likely pressuring prices further.
Analysts note that OPEC+'s message emphasizes stability over ambition, a prudent approach given the deteriorating market outlook. Oil futures have already seen a substantial decline this year, with booming supply from the Americas outpacing demand growth. This situation has led to predictions of a record glut and a downward trend for futures prices.
The three-month production freeze provides OPEC+ time to assess heightened geopolitical risks and ongoing efforts to resolve conflicts. The group also approved a mechanism for reviewing members' individual production capacities, a critical step for setting future quotas, with DeGolyer and MacNaughton Corp. selected for most assessments.
