Oil Prices: 2026 Forecast Slashed $10 Amid Oversupply Fears

The global oil market is navigating a period of uncertainty, with forecasters significantly lowering their 2026 price predictions. Analysts surveyed by Reuters now anticipate an average of $62 per barrel for 2026, a steep $10 reduction from earlier projections. This pessimism is fueled by expectations of a substantial supply surplus, with the International Energy Agency projecting an extreme deficit of 4.2 million barrels per day.

While the consensus points towards lower prices, some factors might provide a price floor. Declining US shale output is expected to commence next year, potentially stabilizing WTI prices around $59 per barrel. However, persistently high freight costs are currently limiting the flow of Atlantic Basin oil to Asia, a situation that could change with easing shipping rates, further impacting market dynamics.