Novo Nordisk Faces Sales Slump Amidst Competition

Novo Nordisk, known for its blockbuster weight-loss drugs Ozempic and Wegovy, has issued a stark warning of declining sales and profits for 2026. The Danish company anticipates an unprecedented drop of eight to thirteen percent, ending a highly profitable period. This forecast is attributed to a combination of factors including President Donald Trump's initiative to reduce drug costs, intensified competition in the weight-loss drug market, and the erosion of key patent protections.

New government policies are expected to drastically lower the monthly cost of these medications, potentially from over $1,000 to just a few hundred dollars. This pricing pressure is compounded by the growing success of rival Eli Lilly's tirzepatide, marketed as Mounjaro and Zepbound. Data indicates that prescriptions for tirzepatide have surged significantly, while semaglutide prescriptions have seen a slight decrease, suggesting a shift in market preference towards the competitor drug, which is noted for its greater effectiveness.

Adding to these challenges, the patent for Novo Nordisk's semaglutide is nearing expiration in several countries, paving the way for more affordable generic versions. While patents for semaglutide remain protected in Europe, Japan until 2033, and the U.S. until 2032, the impending generic competition and pricing reforms are significantly impacting the company's outlook. Despite these headwinds, Novo Nordisk remains hopeful about its new weight-loss pill and its potential to drive future volume growth.