What percentage of US states are in recession or at risk according to Moody's?

Nearly half of all US states are sliding into recession or at risk, according to Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi.

How many jobs did major corporations cut in October 2025?

Major corporations slashed more than 150,000 jobs last month, the biggest October total in more than two decades.

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Moody's Economist Warns: 23 US States Sliding into Recession as National Economy Teeters

Q: Which two US states hold the key to avoiding a national recession?

The fate of the national economy appears to rest on the performance of the two largest state economies, California and New York, which have plateaued but are not yet in recession.

16 Nov

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Summary

23 US states already in recession or at risk
California and New York economies crucial to avoiding national downturn
AI growth provides some economic optimism, but concerns remain

Moody's Economist Warns: 23 US States Sliding into Recession as National Economy Teeters

As of November 16, 2025, a stark warning has emerged from Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi: nearly half of all US states are sliding into recession, posing a significant threat to the national economy's ability to stay afloat.

Zandi's grim assessment comes after major corporations slashed over 150,000 jobs last month, the biggest October total in more than two decades. Sticky inflation, dwindling home construction, factory layoffs, and flat-lining wages have all contributed to the bleak economic picture.

According to Zandi's analysis, 23 states are already in recession or at risk, while only 16 are firmly growing. These struggling states account for 31.8% of the US's overall GDP, and the trend is expanding. The fate of the national economy now appears to rest on the performance of the two largest state economies, California and New York, which have plateaued but are not yet in recession.