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Calendar Predicts Volatility Surge Soon
30 Aug
Summary
- The VIX has hit its lowest point of 2026.
- Historically, volatility tends to increase in September.
- Midterm election years sharpen seasonal stock market patterns.
As of August 30, 2026, Wall Street has experienced a period of quiet, with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) reaching its lowest point for the year. Historically, this calm tends to dissipate around late August, with the VIX typically beginning an upward trend into the fall months.
The VIX, which measures expected fluctuations in the S&P 500, historically shows a median level of around 16.5 in late August, rising toward 18 by mid-September and reaching approximately 19 in early October. While an increasing VIX does not guarantee stock market declines, it does suggest a widening range of potential market outcomes.
September has historically been the weakest month for the S&P 500 since 1950, with an average decline of 0.6%. This pattern is particularly pronounced during midterm election years, when stocks have often struggled from late summer into early fall before recovering later in the season. Despite these tendencies, the market's current trajectory is not predetermined, and the VIX has ample room to rise without signaling an unusual breakdown.
