Marathon Petroleum Surges 44.6% YTD Despite Q3 Earnings Miss

As of November 14th, 2025, Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC), a major independent refiner and marketer of petroleum products in the United States, has seen its stock price surge 44.6% on a year-to-date basis. This strong performance comes despite the company reporting weaker-than-expected Q3 2025 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.01.

The Q3 earnings shortfall was driven by higher refining turnaround costs of $400 million, increased operating costs of $5.59 per barrel, and continued losses from the company's renewable diesel operations. Additionally, lower-than-expected West Coast refining margins and downtime at the Galveston Bay refinery due to a June fire further weighed on investor sentiment.

Despite these challenges, Marathon Petroleum's stock has outperformed the broader market over the past 52 weeks, increasing nearly 30% compared to a 14.6% gain in the S&P 500 Index. The company's Refining & Marketing and Midstream segments have continued to drive strong operational performance, contributing to the stock's outperformance.

Looking ahead, analysts expect MPC's adjusted EPS to grow 7% year-over-year to $10.39 for the current fiscal year ending in December 2025. The company's earnings surprise history has been mixed, with it beating consensus estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing on another occasion.

Among the 20 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is a "Moderate Buy," based on eight "Strong Buy" ratings, three "Moderate Buys," and nine "Holds." This configuration is slightly less bullish than three months ago, when there were nine "Strong Buy" ratings on the stock.