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Port Volumes Dip Amid Tariff Uncertainty
17 Dec
Summary
- November import volume at Port of Los Angeles decreased by 11.5% year-over-year.
- Exports declined 8.4% due to retaliatory tariffs and shifting trade deals.
- Port director anticipates ongoing trade policy uncertainty for at least one year.
The nation's busiest seaport, the Port of Los Angeles, saw a significant decrease in import volume in November, down 11.5% year-over-year. This drop occurred as shippers preemptively imported goods to circumvent impending tariffs on items like toys and auto parts. Concurrently, export volumes contracted by 8.4%, signaling the impact of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products and trade deals that sideline American businesses.
Despite these fluctuations, the port's executive director projects total volume for 2025 to exceed 10 million TEUs, aligning with 2024 figures and marking the third-highest on record. He acknowledged that trade policy uncertainty is likely to persist for at least another year, posing an ongoing challenge. Nationally, U.S. ports collectively observed a 7.8% decline in imports during November, influenced by reduced demand from China and fewer operational days.
Looking ahead to 2026, global trade faces continued risks from tariff pressures, geopolitical conflicts, and potential austerity measures driven by large fiscal deficits. Economists suggest that U.S. companies may begin passing tariff costs to consumers, potentially dampening spending. However, tax refunds from a new bill in early 2026 could provide a boost to consumption, potentially increasing GDP by nearly 3%.
