Institutional Investors Challenge Bitcoin's Predictable Halving Cycle

As of 2025-09-28T04:14:25+00:00, the Bitcoin market is facing a significant shift in its price dynamics. Historically, the cryptocurrency's price has tended to follow a four-year cycle, set in motion by halving events where the reward for mining Bitcoin is halved. However, the latest halving that occurred last year has not resulted in the expected price increase.

The key reason for this change is the surge in institutional and corporate investment in Bitcoin over the past two years. Unlike retail traders who often react to short-term volatility, these large investors are holding Bitcoin for long-term strategic purposes. This has created counter-cyclical market elements, challenging the traditional cycle expectations.

Prominent crypto experts have weighed in on this trend. Crypto analyst Tom Lee recently highlighted how the ongoing demand for Bitcoin ETF products and corporate buyers is shifting the market away from retail dominance. This leaves Bitcoin in less predictable territory, as the halving event may no longer be the dominant factor driving its price cycle.

Some experts, such as Pierre Rochard, argue that the traditional four-year cycle may have lost its predictability altogether. With only 5% of the Bitcoin supply left to be mined, the impact of the halving event is less disruptive than it used to be, reducing its influence on the price.

Going forward, analysts suggest that investors' sentiment, global economic conditions, and institutional buying will play a stronger role in shaping Bitcoin's price movements. The only real move that could ignite a fresh bull run is the easing of macroeconomic conditions, typically seen as a rate cut from the Federal Reserve.

However, the impact of rate cuts on Bitcoin's price has been inconsistent, with a "buy the rumor, sell the news" pattern often observed. Nonetheless, many are already treating a rate cut as a finalized deal, with even Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinting at them last month. This means that even minor policy changes could have a significant impact on the Bitcoin market.

While the death of the four-year cycle may be premature, it seems that the cycle has been weakened, as evidenced by changes in its duration and long-term holders' profit-taking patterns. Polls have also suggested that around 70% of investors are predicting a decline to $105,000 before any further upmarket movements occur.