Why are economists questioning the latest CPI report?

Some economists suspect data collection issues in the October/November CPI reports, finding the reported inflation drops implausible.

What is the projected inflation trajectory for the US?

Inflation is expected to remain above the Fed's 2% target, potentially around 2.2-2.5%, due to tariffs and current economic policies.

How are tariffs affecting US inflation?

Tariffs are currently contributing 30-50 basis points to inflation, a trend expected to continue into the first half of next year.

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CPI Report Questions: Is Inflation Data Flawed?

19 Dec, 2025

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Summary

October/November CPI data shows plausible drops, raising concerns.
Underlying inflation may remain above the Fed's 2% target.
Tariffs are impacting inflation, expected to continue into next year.

CPI Report Questions: Is Inflation Data Flawed?

Recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October and November has sparked debate among economists regarding its accuracy. Concerns have been raised about potential data collection issues, leading some experts to question the plausibility of the reported declines in inflation.

Despite these data concerns, the impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to persist through the first half of the upcoming year. While year-over-year inflation rates may decrease in the latter half of the year as tariff effects roll off, underlying inflation is projected to remain above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, possibly settling between 2.2% and 2.5%.

Economists suggest that even with cooling inflation, cumulative price increases over the past five years continue to affect consumer confidence and affordability. With interest rates near neutral and easier fiscal policy, the impulse to bring inflation back to the 2% target may be insufficient, suggesting inflation could remain slightly elevated.