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Government Shutdown Halts Crucial Inflation Data
10 Nov
Summary
- October CPI data collection was suspended due to the 2025 government shutdown.
- A 12-month inflation change cannot be calculated for October 2025.
- Economists predict a 0.3% monthly price increase, lower than September's.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its October 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, but a critical piece of information will be missing. Data collection was suspended during the 2025 federal government shutdown, preventing the calculation of a year-over-year inflation rate for October.
Despite the absence of annual data, the report will still provide month-over-month inflation figures. Economists predict a 0.3% increase in overall prices for October, a slowdown from September's 0.6% rise. The core inflation rate, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is also expected to decrease from 0.3% to 0.2%.
Information on energy prices, particularly gas, will still be available for October, using non-survey data. This is significant as energy prices have been a key driver of inflation, with a 20.4% year-over-year increase reported in September and gas prices seeing a substantial 34.2% rise.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will consider this CPI data, along with other inflation measures like the personal consumption expenditures price index, for its upcoming interest rate decision. Traders anticipate a rate hike at the FOMC's December meeting, following a steady rate decision in October.
Consumers are adapting to elevated inflation by adjusting their spending habits, particularly in categories like apparel, where they may switch brands, retailers, or delay purchases.
