Pulse Estimates Flop: India Faces Inflation Woes

Concerns are rising as India's agriculture ministry prepares to release its latest pulse production estimates for the 2025-26 kharif season, following two years of significantly inaccurate forecasts. These past forecasting missteps contributed to prolonged double-digit inflation in pulses throughout 2023 and 2024, as the government delayed crucial decisions on import duties and procurement.

The vagaries of weather significantly impacted domestic pulse production in recent years. When harvests fell short, a delayed signal to reduce import duties meant imports reached record highs, undermining India's push for self-sufficiency in this essential protein source. The fluctuating estimates, such as those for chana and other kharif pulses, hampered timely interventions.

This volatility has negatively impacted farmers, with excessive imports benefiting foreign producers over domestic ones. While recent deflation in key dals offers some relief, it threatens future sowing intentions. India, consuming 28 million tonnes annually against a production of 24 million tonnes, has initiated a ₹11,440-crore mission to enhance production and acreage by 2030-31.