India's Green Hydrogen Mission: Capacity vs. Reality

India's National Green Hydrogen Mission has allocated ₹19,744 crore, aiming for 5 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of green hydrogen by 2030. The mission supports an additional 125 GW of renewable energy capacity and expects over ₹8 lakh crore in investments.

As of February 2026, 3 GW per annum of electrolyser manufacturing capacity and 8.62 MTPA of green hydrogen production capacity had been awarded to companies. However, only about 8,000 tonnes per annum (TPA) of production capacity was commissioned, highlighting a significant gap.

Companies like L&T and Thermax are key players. L&T is developing electrolyser manufacturing in Hazira and green hydrogen projects, while Thermax is exploring both alkaline and solid oxide electrolyser cell (SOEC) technologies through partnerships.

Both face the critical challenge of transforming awarded capacity into actual demand and profitability. L&T's Hazira facility boasts advanced manufacturing, but commercial viability needs proof. Thermax's dual-technology approach offers potential but requires successful commercialisation, particularly for its SOEC technology.

Risks include delayed hydrogen projects, slower-than-expected demand, supply chain dependencies, and technology lifecycle costs. Companies must demonstrate a pipeline of executable orders and cost-competitive production to succeed.

Investors are advised to assess the core business of these companies independent of hydrogen's long-term potential and monitor execution milestones and financial performance closely.