India's Exports Defy Trade Tensions, Adapt to Shifting Landscape

As of November 11, 2025, India's goods exports have demonstrated remarkable resilience despite the ongoing trade and tariff uncertainty. According to a recent analysis by Barclays, the country's export growth has been steady, particularly in sectors exempted from US tariffs, such as telecom and pharmaceuticals.

The report highlights that India has also taken proactive measures to diversify its oil imports, with a notable increase in purchases from major suppliers like Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the US. This diversification strategy has helped offset the impact of the 50% tariffs imposed by the US on certain Indian exports.

Furthermore, the analysis reveals an interesting trend in the smartphone sector. India has significantly ramped up its exports of smartphones to the US, likely in response to the "threatened" increase in tariffs on a large US smartphone manufacturer. This strategic move has come at the cost of reduced exports to other markets, showcasing India's adaptability in the face of trade challenges.

Despite the elevated merchandise trade deficit and the ongoing US-India trade talks, Barclays believes that the risks to India's current account stability are "more manageable than what meets the eye." The report emphasizes that the country's robust services surplus and the front-loading of exports, though lower than other emerging market peers, have helped offset the larger trade deficit.