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India's Sugar Output Cut Amid Weather Woes
6 Mar
Summary
- India's 2025-26 sugar output forecast reduced to 28.3 million tonnes.
- Adverse weather in Maharashtra and Karnataka impacted sugarcane yields.
- Global sugar prices may increase due to India's lower output and Brazil's diversion.
The All India Sugar Trade Association (AISTA) has revised India's sugar output forecast for the 2025-26 season downward to 28.3 million tonnes. This adjustment follows earlier estimates and acknowledges the significant impact of extraordinary climatic challenges, particularly excessive rainfall and prolonged cloudy weather in Maharashtra and Karnataka. These conditions severely disrupted sugarcane growth and led to productivity losses, especially in Maharashtra's Marathwada region.
Maharashtra's estimated output has been cut to 9.97 million tonnes, while Uttar Pradesh's forecast is now 9.1 million tonnes, and Karnataka's is seen at 4.8 million tonnes. The situation is compounded by strong demand for sugarcane from jaggery units in Uttar Pradesh, reducing cane availability for mills.
Globally, this revised forecast for India, coupled with potential increases in Brazil's ethanol diversion from sugarcane, is expected to influence global sugar prices. Approximately 3.2 million tonnes of India's gross production are anticipated to be diverted towards ethanol production, a factor that could contribute to upward pressure on international sugar rates.
