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India Shifts Oil Buys: Beyond Discounts to Geopolitics
20 Feb
Summary
- India is prioritizing resilience and US energy ties over opportunistic discounts.
- Russian oil imports fell over 40% in January 2026 due to sanctions.
- US and Venezuela re-emerge in India's crude mix as geopolitical risks shift.

India is implementing a new energy security doctrine that prioritizes compliance resilience, supply diversification, and stronger US energy linkages, marking a strategic shift from purely discount-driven crude oil imports. This recalibration is driven by the nation's high import dependence, estimated at 87%, with demand projected to rise significantly by 2035.
As of January 2026, imports from Russia have decreased by over 40% year-on-year, influenced by tightening sanctions dynamics. This has led to a resurgence of the United States and Venezuela in India's crude oil mix, offering tactical alternatives and potentially easing bilateral trade friction with Washington.




