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Goldman Sachs Forecasts $4,900 Gold Price by 2026 Amid Central Bank Buying
7 Oct
Summary
- Goldman Sachs raises 2026 gold price forecast to $4,900 per ounce
- Strong ETF inflows and likely central bank buying driving price surge
- Gold has climbed 51% so far in 2025 on central bank buying and retail demand
According to a report released by Goldman Sachs on October 7, 2025, the investment bank has raised its December 2026 gold price forecast to $4,900 per ounce, up from its previous estimate of $4,300. The analysts cite strong inflows into Western exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and likely continued central bank buying as the key drivers behind this bullish outlook.
Gold prices have already climbed 51% so far in 2025, reaching a fresh high of $3,977.19 per ounce earlier this week. The precious metal's surge has been fueled by a combination of factors, including robust central bank purchasing, growing demand for gold-backed ETFs, a weaker U.S. dollar, and increased interest from retail investors seeking a hedge against rising trade and geopolitical tensions.
Looking ahead, Goldman expects central bank buying to average 80 metric tons in 2025 and 70 tons in 2026, as emerging market central banks continue to diversify their reserves into gold. The bank also anticipates Western ETF holdings to rise further as the U.S. Federal Reserve is projected to lower interest rates by 100 basis points by mid-2026.
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"We see the risks to our upgraded gold price forecast as still skewed to the upside on net, because private sector diversification into the relatively small gold market may boost ETF holdings above our rates-implied estimate," Goldman said in the report.
