Gold Surges to Record Highs as Fed Rate Cuts Loom

As of October 4th, 2025, gold prices are holding firm near record highs, with the precious metal set for a seventh consecutive weekly gain. Investors are encouraged by growing expectations of US interest rate cuts and worries about the economic impact of the ongoing government shutdown.

Spot gold was unchanged at $3,859.69 per ounce, following a record high of $3,896.49 on the previous Thursday. For the week, gold has risen 2.7%, and US December gold futures were up 0.4%, trading at $3,883 per ounce.

The US government shutdown, now in its third day, has caused delays in important economic data releases, including the much-anticipated non-farm payrolls report. Alternative data sources suggest the US job market stalled in September, with stagnant hiring and unchanged unemployment rates.

Market forecasts show a 97% chance of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in October, with another similar cut expected in December with an 88% probability. These anticipated rate cuts are seen as supporting gold's rebound, and UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo expects gold to surpass $4,000 per ounce before the end of the year.

Meanwhile, physical gold demand in India increased this week despite near record-high prices, while Chinese markets were closed for a holiday, limiting trading there. Analysts say gold remains overbought on daily technical charts, but demand continues to outweigh selling pressure.