Home / Business and Economy / India & Brazil Sugar Surges Threaten Global Prices
India & Brazil Sugar Surges Threaten Global Prices
20 Dec
Summary
- India may permit more sugar exports, easing domestic supply concerns.
- Weakening Brazilian real encourages sugar export sales.
- India's 2025-26 sugar production jumped significantly year-over-year.
Global sugar prices experienced a significant decline, reaching one-week lows. This downturn is largely attributed to the prospect of increased sugar exports from India, aiming to alleviate a domestic supply surplus. The Indian government is reportedly considering allowing additional exports, following a previous quota of 1.5 MMT for the 2025/26 season.
Adding to the bearish sentiment, the Brazilian real has weakened against the dollar, making it more attractive for Brazil's sugar producers to engage in export sales. This currency movement, coupled with strong production data from India, where output for the 2025-26 season (October 1 to December 15) jumped by 28% year-over-year to 7.83 MMT, is putting pressure on global sugar markets.
Further compounding the situation, forecasts suggest a larger sugar crop in India, with production estimates for 2025/26 revised upward to 31 MMT, an 18.8% year-over-year increase. Brazil's crop forecasting agency also raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT. These robust production outlooks in both countries are expected to negatively impact sugar prices.
