Global Cotton Output Drops Amid Shifting Production Estimates

The 2026/27 global cotton season, which commenced in October, is forecast to see a reduction in production. The latest USDA assessment projects a decrease of nearly 500,000 bales, bringing the total output to an estimated 117.5 million bales.

This downward revision is largely due to anticipated smaller harvests in key cotton-producing nations such as India, the United States, and Turkey. These reductions are significant enough to counteract the higher production estimates for China, the world's largest producer, and Australia.

China's cotton output projection was increased by 500,000 bales to 34 million, driven by improved yields. Conversely, India, the second-largest producer, faces a reduction of 500,000 bales, with its output now projected at 23.5 million bales due to unfavorable weather conditions.

Production in Brazil, a leading global exporter, remains steady at 19 million bales. However, output in the United States is expected to fall by 267,000 bales to 13.18 million. Global exports, meanwhile, have seen an increase of over 100,000 bales, reaching 44.8 million, propelled by enhanced shipments from Ivory Coast and Egypt.

Brazil is anticipated to export 16 million bales, with the United States exporting 12.3 million, and Australia maintaining exports at 4.5 million bales. Turkey's imports have been revised upwards by 300,000 bales to 5.3 million due to lower domestic production, partially offset by a 200,000-bale reduction in Bangladesh's imports due to decreased consumption.

Overall global cotton consumption is projected to be lowered by more than 300,000 bales, settling at 122.7 million bales.