Future Shock: How Anticipation Kills Jobs

Anticipating the obsolescence of an occupation can proactively shape its labor market, often by deterring younger individuals. Historically, the average age of horse-drawn carriage drivers increased between 1900 and 1910 as fewer young people entered the field, even with few trucks registered. This trend continued through a period of 'anticipatory dread,' with younger workers disproportionately leaving the profession by 1920-1930 as trucks became more common.

Modern parallels are emerging, with research indicating a drop in commercial driver licensing in California areas where autonomous vehicles have been tested. While robotaxis differ from self-driving trucks, the visible presence of driverless technology may be prompting some to foresee the end of their careers. The International Brotherhood of Teamsters is actively opposing this technological advancement.

Despite the potential for gradual transitions, excessive anticipation can exacerbate issues. For instance, a 2017 article predicted widespread autonomous truck adoption within 10-15 years. However, as of 2026, commercial driverless trucking remains nascent, with market leaders producing limited quantities. Global transport operators report a significant shortage of 2.9 million truck drivers, with worsening conditions partly attributed to long hours and poor pay, but potentially amplified by fears of technological displacement.

This 'anticipation factor' might also be influencing educational choices. In the UK, undergraduate computing applications have decreased in the past two years, possibly reflecting young people's absorption of data suggesting AI's impact on entry-level software development roles. Ultimately, our efforts to predict the future can inadvertently shape its reality.