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Is the Bull Market Real? Dow Theory Holds Key
29 Apr
Summary
- Dow Theory requires confirmation from both Industrial and Transportation averages.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average is close to its peak but hasn't set a new high.
- The Dow Jones Transportation Average hit a high but has since declined.
Market watchers are scrutinizing the Dow Theory to assess the sustainability of the ongoing bull market. This foundational theory of technical analysis suggests that a durable bullish trend must be confirmed by both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average.
As of April 29, 2026, the situation remains uncertain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has not achieved a new record closing high since February 10, though it approached its all-time peak recently. The Dow Jones Transportation Average did reach a closing high on April 21.
However, the Transportation Average has experienced a downturn since hitting its peak. Concerns are heightened by a brief rally in Avis Budget Group, which skewed the index's performance. For the bull market to be validated under Dow Theory, the Industrial Average must soon surpass its February record.
