Citi Goes Bullish: Copper Eyes $15K Amid Trade Hopes

Copper prices are anticipated to climb significantly in the coming months, with analysts forecasting a surge to $14,500 per metric ton next month and $15,000 per metric ton within a year. This bullish outlook marks Citi's first positive stance on the metal since 2026. Goldman Sachs also raised its year-end target for copper to $13,735 per metric ton.

The market is reacting to the upcoming U.S. decision on tariffs for refined copper imports, expected at the end of next month. Analysts believe the U.S. administration will likely refrain from imposing these tariffs but will keep the outcome uncertain to incentivize increased copper stockpiling within the country. This strategic ambiguity is a key factor supporting current LME copper prices.

Despite potential concerns over tariff clarity after June, a positive physical market outlook and the expected reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by summer are projected to offset any downward price pressure. Copper's fundamental importance as a proxy for economic health and its critical role in the energy transition, including electric vehicles, power grids, and data centers, are driving sustained demand.

While copper prices have seen significant gains, driven by factors like supply disruptions and AI spending, a "sustained and unstable" situation in the Middle East remains a bearish risk. Additionally, copper inventory levels and consumption are sensitive to interest rates and market expectations, highlighting ongoing economic influences.