Commodity Volatility Spikes Amidst Tariff Turmoil

The commodities market in 2025 saw a notable return to volatility, a stark contrast to the preceding two years. This shift was significantly influenced by the broad implementation of global tariffs in April, which caused sharp upticks in both equity and commodity volatility. Markets experienced ripple effects, with uncertainty leading to stockpiling and volatile price movements across key commodities like copper.

Precious metals, particularly gold, continued their upward trajectory, reaching new all-time highs. Silver and other precious metals followed suit with a lagged but more pronounced upward movement, partly influenced by tariff concerns and a rush for physical delivery, mirroring events in the copper market. Meanwhile, supply dynamics varied, with oil production increasing but certain sectors like metals and livestock facing constraints due to events such as mine disruptions and disease outbreaks.

Inflation, a primary driver for commodities, showed signs of picking up after a dip in the second quarter, exceeding the Federal Reserve's target. This resurgence, coupled with strong Black Friday sales indicating price pass-throughs, raises questions about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. There is concern that a dovish stance could reignite inflation, potentially necessitating future rate hikes.