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Cobalt Price Surge: Congo Export Curbs Trigger Global Shortage
17 Mar
Summary
- Congo export restrictions have caused a persistent cobalt shortage until 2030.
- Benchmark cobalt prices have surged over 160% since restrictions were imposed.
- Stockpiles are being depleted, leading to a sharp technical deficit in the market.
Global cobalt supply faces a persistent shortage expected to last through 2030, driven by export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The DRC, a primary supplier, implemented bans and quotas starting in February of last year, significantly reducing shipments. These measures were aimed at curbing oversupply and increasing prices for the battery metal.
Benchmark cobalt prices have since rallied over 160%, with cobalt hydroxide, a key export from the DRC, quadrupling in value. This has created a substantial market deficit, with surplus inventories from previous years now being structurally depleted. Global refined cobalt output saw a 20% decline in 2025, the first drop in five years.
While the DRC might ease export quotas this year to prevent demand destruction, the market remains tightly supplied. Delays in implementing new export procedures meant arrivals in China were not expected until May or June of this year. Imports of mixed hydroxide precipitate from Indonesia are anticipated to grow, though they carry their own risks.
The disruptions stemming from the DRC's export curbs have underscored the fragility of the cobalt supply chain. This has spurred increased investment in product diversification and material substitution, which could eventually temper demand growth in certain end-use markets.
