How did China withstand Trump's tariffs in 2025?

China found new international buyers for its exports, achieving a record high despite significant US tariffs.

What are the risks for Europe from China's industrial expansion?

Europe risks permanent damage to its own production and employment by absorbing China's expanding output.

Will China boost domestic demand to reduce global imbalances?

It is unlikely, as China's leadership has not shown readiness to implement policies for significantly lifting domestic consumption.

Home / Business and Economy / China's Trade War Surprise: Exports Soar, World Worries

China's Trade War Surprise: Exports Soar, World Worries

4 Jan

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Summary

China's exports hit a record high despite highest US tariffs since the 1980s.
Economists project China's global export share to reach 16.5% by 2030.
Europe and emerging markets are absorbing China's industrial capacity.

China's Trade War Surprise: Exports Soar, World Worries

China's unexpected resilience in 2025 against escalated US tariffs saw its exports surge to record levels, prompting global concern. As the US president imposed the highest tariffs since China's 1980s entry into the global trading system, China successfully diversified its buyer base.

This shift raises critical questions for the 2026 global economy regarding the absorption of China's growing industrial output. Potential outcomes range from advanced European economies and emerging markets taking on this excess capacity, potentially harming their own production, to a significant policy reversal by the US under President Trump, aiming for rapprochement with China.

Economists forecast China's share of global exports to climb to 16.5% by 2030, impacting trade balances, employment, and inflation worldwide. While Europe and Southeast Asia have absorbed much of China's export wave, there is increasing wariness over Chinese trade practices, though a strong pushback remains unlikely for now.